Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:13) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 35 for 13 yards (38-D.Harris). PENALTY on TEN-38-D.Harris, Illegal Motion, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.01 EP
58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model