Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to TEN 18, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 2-R.Woods. PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 18.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model