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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Shotgun) 11-J.Dobbs pass incomplete short right to 16-T.Burks [56-D.Fowler].

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.26 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model