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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to DAL 24, Center-46-M.Cox. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 35 for 11 yards (42-J.Jones; 13-R.McMath).

The Three Options

GO -1.96 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 73, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 31, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model