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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 21

What Actually Happened

(:50) 6-M.Haack punts 22 yards to NYG 39, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.22 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 61, worth -3.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 20, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model