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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 63

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-M.Haack punts 42 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 80-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.92 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 63, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 21, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model