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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 29

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 24

What Actually Happened

(14:04) 7-C.McLaughlin 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.58 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 39, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model