4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 3 – New York Giants 31

What Actually Happened

(4:08) (Shotgun) 4-S.Ehlinger pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman to NYG 11 for 7 yards (37-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.11 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP