Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
New York Giants
4th & 2 at the 27
New York Giants 38 – Indianapolis Colts 10
What Actually Happened
(2:00) 23-G.Brightwell right guard to IND 29 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).
The Three Options
GO
+1.36 EP
What Happened
-
56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.20 EP
- 44% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 27, worth -0.95 EP
KICK
+1.40 EP
Model's Pick
- 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 37, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT
-0.43 EP
- Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
