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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 47

New York Giants 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.39 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model