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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 5

Indianapolis Colts 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 7-C.McLaughlin 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +3.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 5, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.09 EP