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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 11 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 11-R.Dixon punts 36 yards to LAC 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.55 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 19, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model