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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) 15-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.24 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model