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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to LA 23, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.91 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model