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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 61

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 14-R.Wright punts 55 yards to GB 6, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-R.Cobb to GB 21 for 15 yards (33-B.Asamoah).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.97 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP