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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model