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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 41 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to MIN 21, Center-56-J.Coco. 5-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIN 21. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 21 for no gain (24-T.Carpenter).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.61 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model