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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 39
Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 3
What Actually Happened
(6:37) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 45 for -16 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
The Three Options
GO
+1.95 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
- 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
KICK
+0.26 EP
- 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT
+0.08 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
