4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 37

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:33) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage (29-R.Douglas) at GB 25. 26-D.Savage for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.53 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model