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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 3-W.Lutz 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.70 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP