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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 3-W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 2, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP