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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-13-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model