Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(9:39) 4-B.Gillikin punts 55 yards to PHI 14, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model