Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New Orleans Saints 13

(4:55) 13-B.Kern punts 26 yards to NO 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
68% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model