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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 46

New Orleans Saints 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to PHI 4, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-20-P.Werner.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.40 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.76 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model