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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 76

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 13-B.Kern punts 50 yards to NO 26, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed pushed ob at NO 32 for 6 yards (58-K.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.14 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 76, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 34, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model