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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 50

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (No Huddle) 10-G.Minshew up the middle to 50 for no gain (56-D.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.50 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model