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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 45

New Orleans Saints 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 4-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to PHI 9, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model