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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 9

New Orleans Saints 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill right guard to PHI 1 for 8 yards (32-R.Blankenship).

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.46 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model