Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

(4:03) 13-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NO 20, Center-45-R.Lovato. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 29 for 9 yards (48-P.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model