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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:40) 4-B.Gillikin punts 33 yards to PHI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.30 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model