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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 39

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 6-G.Zuerlein 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model