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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 23

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 5-J.Myers 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.91 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model