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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Jets 6 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 7-B.Mann punts 47 yards to SEA 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 31-D.Dallas to SEA 14 for no gain (21-A.Davis; 34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.98 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP