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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 20 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model