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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 5-J.Myers 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +2.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.42 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth +0.53 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model