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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 26

New York Jets 0 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:24) 6-G.Zuerlein 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model