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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 11-J.Stout punts 49 yards to PIT 36, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims. PENALTY on PIT-39-M.Fitzpatrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 36.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +1.11 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP