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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.80 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.90 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model