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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 33

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:35) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model