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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.67 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model