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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.81 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model