4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 9 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BAL 34, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-J.Proche pushed ob at BAL 36 for 2 yards (13-M.Boykin).

The Three Options

GO -3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 85, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 43, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model