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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:25) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.96 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP