4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 12

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 9-J.Tucker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.23 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model