Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 28
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 17
What Actually Happened
(8:59) 17-K.Drake left guard to CIN 29 for -1 yards (29-C.Taylor-Britt).
The Three Options
GO
+2.28 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.12 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 28, worth -1.52 EP
KICK
+0.84 EP
- 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 38, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT
-0.46 EP
- Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
