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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 59

Cincinnati Bengals 17 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 4-D.Chrisman punts 43 yards to BAL 16, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 3-J.Proche to BAL 24 for 8 yards (44-C.Johnston).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.75 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model