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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 11-J.Stout punts 34 yards to CIN 21, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 11-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP