Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 24 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(14:21) 4-D.Chrisman punts 42 yards to BAL 30, Center-48-C.Adomitis, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither. PENALTY on CIN-48-C.Adomitis, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model