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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 8

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 24

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 9-J.Tucker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model